Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why should I care about forecasting?
As the adage goes, "proper planning prevents poor performance." While we cannot predict the future with perfect accuracy, we all share the future. Even imperfect forecasts, for example of the weather or an economic or political outcome, can benefit us significantly.
Good human judgment remains critically important even in today's age of computing and deep-learning algorithms. In a July 2017 article in the Harvard Business Review, professors Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb wrote, "Economic theory suggests that AI will substantially raise the value of human judgment. People who display good judgment will become more valuable, not less." The authors explained further in their February 2017 article in the MIT Sloan Management Review, "[t]he task that AI makes abundant and inexpensive is prediction," and, "[t]he future’s most valuable skills will be those that are complementary to prediction — in other words, those related to judgment."
2. Is accurate forecasting really possible?
Yes, so long as the phenomenon and timescale lend themselves to forecasting. For example, it is possible to forecast the weather but not earthquakes. Even then, weather forecasts are reasonably accurate within a 5-7 day timescale but not over a 20-day timescale.
Good Judgment research has shown that it is possible to forecast certain economic and political phenomena accurately over the right timescale; that some forecasters are more skilled than others; and that forecasting skills can be developed, which is the goal of the online course. While the online course is applicable to forecasting in all areas, participants are generally most interesting in forecasting economic and political outcomes.
3. What is Good Judgment?
Good Judgment is the business spinoff of a research project that was based at University of Pennsylvania. The research project identified a better way to crowdsource the forecasting of political and economic events. Today, Good Judgment offers products and services to help organizations better understand their environmental risks and opportunities.
4. What will I learn in Superforecasting Fundamentals?
The course is designed to develop six fundamental forecasting skills:
- Probabilistic reasoning
- Distinguishing between the “outside view” and the “inside view”
- Translating news into effective forecasting updates
- Avoiding overconfidence and underconfidence
- Understanding Brier scores
- Reducing cognitive biases
Our research shows that each of these skills contribute to forecasting accuracy. Participants have found the course content to be practical and applicable for use on forecasting platforms, such as Good Judgment Open, as well as work and life more generally.
5. Who will benefit from Superforecasting Fundamentals?
The course is designed for new forecasters who wish to improve their ability to deliver forecasts with the appropriate level of confidence and learn techniques to calculate forecasts rather than relying on instincts. Participants who have completed Superforecasting Fundamentals have reported an improved confidence and a more accurate understanding of how to avoid both overconfidence and underconfidence in forecasting.
More advanced forecasters who wish to improve their forecasting accuracy are invited to attend one of our Superforecaster-led workshops.
6. Which browsers are compatible with Superforecasting Fundamentals?
All modern browsers are course-compatible. This includes the newest versions of Chrome, Firefox, Edge, Internet Explorer, Opera, and Safari. Superforecasting Fundamentals is HTML5-based.
7. Who do I contact for help?
If you are in need of assistance, please email our team at email@example.com.
8. Can I get my money back?
While we think Superforecasting Fundamentals will make you a more accurate and confident forecaster, we do offer a 30-day Money Back Guarantee. If you are not satisfied with the course content within 30 days of purchase, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. Let us know why the course did not meet your expectations, and we will refund your purchase.
9. Does Good Judgment offer any additional options for forecasting training?
Yes, we offer several additional options for forecasting training:
- Superforecaster-led workshops: In-person and interactive, Good Judgment's Superforecaster-led workshops offer a focused, deeper dive into effective forecasting practice. We deliver workshops on a recurring basis in locations around the globe.
- Customized training options: If you are interested in a bulk purchase of Superforecasting Fundamentals or more comprehensive training for your team or organization, please email us at email@example.com.
- Good Judgment Open: One of the world's largest public forecasting communities, forecasters can practice registering probabilistic expectations and experience wisdom-of-the-crowd forecasting in action.